Sunday, December 07, 2008

Staying ahead of the economists, one (giant) step at a time.

Depression ~ "a depression is characterized by abnormal increases in unemployment, restriction of credit, shrinking output and investment, numerous bankruptcies, reduced amounts of trade and commerce, as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations, mostly devaluations. Price deflation or hyperinflation are also common elements of a depression."

Well, it was a wonderful week of validation, last week was. What Americans have known, many through bitter experiences, economists have finally realized too: The U.S. is in a recession! Has been for a year now!! Maybe the economists just haven't experienced the pinch yet. But it's nice to learn what we've been seeing, feeling and saying for more than a year now is being acknowledged. Even by our ol' dazed fed chairman, Alan Greenspan himself!

Is it just "coincidence" this repulsively foul economy is happening at the very end of the Bush presidency or what? Over half a million more jobs lost in November. One in every ten mortgagor is now behind in their house payments or, worse, in foreclosure.

(Hint to investors wanting to become landlords: with 1.35 million American families out of their homes, this may be an excellent time to invest in apartments, old toxic FEMA Katrina trailers, or cardboard boxes to house the dispossessed.)

Locally we learned yesterday that in the latest quarter El Paso ranks 237th among 381 U.S.metro areas in mortgage loan delinquencies. But worse, the news I have been dreading, knowing it was inevitable, also appeared: a local tortilla plant is closing and 128 employees will lose their jobs, making fresh tortillas just a little harder to find.

But seriously, as the most popular sections of the newspaper go from sports, comics and the TV schedule listings to front page headlines, the business section with its daily bleak economic revelations and the classified's help wanted ads, can we call it what it is? A freaking depression!

Okay, depression it is. As for the economists, if we grab 'em by the juevos and run with 'em, their hearts and brains will eventually follow. After all, they're always the last to know.



enigma4ever said... looks so nice over here..and I love the photo...and yeah...ahem...about that Depression- wehlp let's see how long it takes for the Economists to realize what we all know....

But as long as we all are honest with each other and look out for each other...we can get through this- we won't let ourselves be Katrinaed...never...

Fran said...

Are we there yet?

I suspect lots of businesses, including the airlines all of them , not just United will do a massive layoffs after the holiday season. I think we will see thing go belly up as well.

I predict Paulson will have given away the whole $700 billion by the time his ass gets booted along with George's on 1*20*09.

Historically, the longest previous recession went on for 16 months....but "there are no rules", and if that were the case, we would just be 4 months from going through a 16 month recession.

The only good thing about the recession & the Wall Street mess/financial crisis, is it probably helped Obama get elected.

D.K. Raed said...

Re: "economists are always the last to know" ... how can you tell? they are always talking about every possibility, they're bound to be right once in awhile. and when the occasion arises, they have the graphs and charts to prove why. nevermind that they were producing just as many graphs and charts proving otherwise, don't pay attention to whatever they said before.